00 Financial Model · 36 months
The whole engine, reconciled to a single burn figure.
Revised JOKR 36-month model, finalized after CFO stress-test. Reconciliation: $1,900,000 raised in, $210,000 LP seed carved out exactly once, $1,690,000 working capital = $1,400,000 core deployable + $290,000 ring-fenced contingency. The $4.99 subscription cut is modeled honestly (net sub ~70% of the old $9 plan at base, inside the 60-80% band: 1,870 subs x $4.49 = $8.4k at M12; 4,500 x $4.49 = $20.4k booked at M24). The headline correction from the stress-test: there is NO operating break-even in any scenario with...
THE HONEST HEADLINE
The $1.9M raise fully funds the studio through TGE and the product-market-fit window. Operating break-even is NOT reached inside 36 months at the $4.99 price.
The $4.99 subscription (down from $9) roughly halves ARPU, and after TGE half of subscription revenue routes to the buyback and NFT reserve. Break-even needs roughly 21,000 paid subscribers; the base plan projects 4,500 by M24. Reaching break-even in-horizon requires one of three levers: a higher subscription price (the $9 tier broke even ~M32), a leaner post-TGE opex, or a planned bridge / token-treasury drawdown. All scenarios do reach TGE on this raise.
01 Scenarios
Bear, Base, Bull.
Bear
~$3.2k
Runway: ~22 core-only; ~27+ with hibernation + contingency
Break-even: None in 36 months
Survives the 15-month pre-TGE build to TGE, but token era adds almost nothing (Meteora $1.5k, NFT primary $28k one-time) and cash runs out ~M22-23 in the early token era. Only the explicit hibernation rule (freeze M12/M1
Base
~$8.4k booked
Runway: ~21 core-only; ~25 with contingency drawn
Break-even: Beyond the 36-month window
The raise buys runway and a genuine shot at product-market fit, not self-sufficiency. Net-to-ops recurring (~$14k at M24) covers only ~15% of ~$95k opex. Cumulative 36-month opex ~$3.2M vs ~$2.5M resources leaves a ~$0.7
Bull
~$23.4k booked
Runway: ~32 core-only
Break-even: Not reached in 36 months (closest approach)
Strongest case: viral subscriber growth on the cheaper price point, $278k NFT primary at ~M18 and Meteora $30k/mo extend runway toward ~M33. Still short of operating break-even in the window, because opex ramps to $105k+
02 Revenue & Runway
Ops-usable revenue and cumulative cash, all three cases.
Ops-usable strips out the non-spendable carve-outs (60% of Meteora fees to buyback, 30% of subscription to the NFT reserve). This is the cash the studio actually runs on.
Ops-usable revenue $/mo (incl. one-time NFT spike at M+3)
Cumulative cash from $1.69M working capital
03 Sources & Uses
$1.515M in, itemized out.
Total raise$1.9M
Rounds4 + public
Launch FDV$18M
Private supply20%
Liquid at TGELP only
$6M
Pre-Seed
$9M
Seed
$11M
Strategic
$13.5M
Community Roun
$18M
Public Launch
Pre-Seed · Founding Circle
Strategic angels and mission-aligned founding believers
$360k
Valuation$6M
Allocation6%
TGE unlock0%
Vs launch3.0x
Reg D 506(c) or Reg SDeepest discount, 3.0x below launch, for the earliest and highest-risk capital. Short 6-month cliff. Zero at TGE.Vesting: 6mo cliff, 18mo linear
Seed
Small funds and serious KOLs
$450k
Valuation$9M
Allocation5%
TGE unlock0%
Vs launch2.0x
Reg D 506(c) or Reg S2.0x below launch. Cliff at 12 months desynchronizes it from the Strategic unlock. Zero at TGE.Vesting: 12mo cliff, 18mo linear
Strategic · KOL Round
Accredited KOLs and crypto-native distributors
$550k
Valuation$11M
Allocation5%
TGE unlock0%
Vs launch1.6x
Reg D 506(c) accredited-only1.64x below launch. Enlarged to 5% to help reach the $1.9M target. KOL pay is flat content fees, not per-investor commissions. Zero at TGE.Vesting: 6mo cliff, 12mo linear
Community Round
Whitelisted non-accredited, non-US community (per-wallet capped)
$540k
Valuation$13.5M
Allocation4%
TGE unlock0%
Vs launch1.3x
Reg S offshore, hard geoblock, 30-day TWAP make-whole1.33x below launch. Offshore Reg S via a substantive Cayman foundation, plus a make-whole that trues buyers up to the 30-day post-launch TWAP. Zero at TGE.Vesting: 3mo cliff, 12mo linear
Use of funds · $1.9M budget
Production / IP$550k
28.9%
Team / Founder / Operations$350k
18.4%
Marketing / Growth$300k
15.8%
Contingency / Reserve$290k
15.3%
Liquidity$210k
11.1%
Legal / Compliance / Audit$200k
10.5%
Contingency & reserve · $290k
Working Capital
$100k
Production Overruns
$75k
Legal / Regulatory
$50k
Technology / Security
$40k
Emergency Reserve
$25k
Why this is a strong cap table
Fixed supply, no mint
100,000,000,000 $JOKR, mint authority revoked at TGE. No inflation.
Only the LP is liquid at TGE
Every private round, the team, treasury, foundation, and the exchange reserve unlock 0% at TGE. Day-one float is the public LP alone.
Studio owns the IP
The operating entity owns all IP and brand. Token holders hold access, a release-window vote, and discretionary programs, not ownership of the company or its IP.
Reserved matters ring-fenced
IP, brand, corporate structure, founder rights, and core strategy require founder/studio approval and are not subject to token-holder vote.
Discounts scale with the lock
Earliest and longest-locked pays least (3.0x below launch); latest pays most (1.33x).
Buyback and burn
60% of Meteora fees + 20% of subscription route to buyback; 50% burned. Net-deflationary as volume grows.
Emission-only staking
Rewards from a capped, published emission curve. Zero fee-share, Howey-severed. No yield promised.
$290k contingency
A real reserve (working capital, overruns, legal, tech, emergency) that extends runway through the longer pre-TGE build.
On-chain enforced
Streamflow vesting, Squads 3-of-5 multisig with named signers and a 72-hour timelock, public buyback wallet.
04 KPIs
What we watch.
| KPI | M6 | M12 | M24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid subscribers (base) | ~750 | ~1,870 | ~4,500 |
| Subscription revenue, booked/mo (base) | ~$3.4k | ~$8.4k | ~$20.4k |
| Subscription net-to-ops/mo (base) | ~$3.4k (100% pre-TGE) | ~$8.4k (100% pre-TGE) | ~$10.2k (50% post-TGE) |
| Total booked recurring revenue/mo (base) | ~$3.4k | ~$8.4k | ~$26k |
| Total net-to-ops recurring/mo (base) | ~$3.4k | ~$8.4k | ~$14k |
| Monthly opex (base) | ~$58k | ~$78k | ~$95k |
| Monthly net burn, net-to-ops (base) | ~$55k | ~$70k | ~$81k |
| Revenue coverage of opex, net-to-ops (base) | ~6% | ~11% | ~15% (~27% on booked) |
| Cumulative cash deployed vs $1.4M core (base) | ~$0.42M | ~$0.86M | core exhausted ~M21; on contingency |
05 Sensitivity
What moves the outcome most.
| Driver | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free-to-paid conversion (master lever) | ~710 subs at M12 (bear) | ~1,870 subs at M12 | ~4,200+ subs at M12 (bull) |
| Subscription price / ARPU ($4.99 cut) | net ~71% of $9 plan (bear) | net ~70% of $9 plan | net ~86% of $9 plan (bull) |
| SOL price at TGE / NFT drop | NFT primary $28k (bear) | NFT primary $110k | NFT primary $278k (bull) |
| Meteora volume / creator fees | $1.5k/mo (bear, ~M27) | $4k/mo | $30k/mo (bull) |
| Post-TGE opex discipline | $95-105k/mo as modeled | $95k/mo at M24 | ~$66-70k/mo (~30% cut) |
| Platform-fee drag (YouTube-first) | ~10% off booked gross | ~10%, easing to ~7% post owned-app | ~7% with owned app ~M18+ |
06 Assumptions
Every lever, stated.
| Assumption | Value | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Raise and cash reconciliation | $1,900,000 in; $210k LP seed carved once; $1,690,000 working capital = $1,400,000 core + $290,000 contingency | Everything reconciles: 1,900 - 210 LP = 1,690 working capital. Use of funds: Production/IP $550k, Marketing $300k, Legal/Compliance/Audit $200k, Team/Ops $350k |
| Break-even (CRITICAL FIX) | No operating break-even in any scenario within 36 months | Retracts the prior 'low-to-mid 20s' claim and resolves the self-contradiction. At $4.49 net-to-ops, break-even needs ~21,000 paid subs; base projects 4,500 (M24 |
| Net-to-ops vs booked (CRITICAL FIX) | Runway and break-even computed on net-to-ops cash, not booked revenue | Post-TGE only 50% of subscription (30% NFT reserve + 20% buyback removed) and 40% of Meteora fees (60% to buyback-and-burn) fund ops. Surfaces the M15 buyback c |
| Contingency handling (HIGH FIX) | $290k is inside the $1.69M, NOT additive; base burns the $1.4M core | Removes the double-count. Contingency is ring-fenced and drawn only on overrun; runway reported two ways (core-only and core-plus-contingency). The $290k is nev |
| Funding gap (HIGH FIX) | ~$0.7-1.0M gap: 36-month opex ~$3.2M vs ~$2.5M resources | Total resources = $1.69M working capital + ~$0.8M lifetime revenue. Base does NOT assume the gap is closed. To reach in-horizon break-even, cut post-TGE opex ~3 |
| People-cost funding (HIGH FIX) | All cash comp funded from the raise; no revenue surplus in any month | Corrects the false 'later months funded by revenue' claim. Revenue never exceeds opex, so nothing is revenue-funded. True cumulative 36-month people cash is ~$1 |
| LP seed timing guard (MEDIUM FIX) | $210k reserved and unavailable to pre-TGE ops M0-M15; deploys ~M15 at TGE | Confirms the $210k is genuinely fenced and not silently funding pre-TGE burn, so the $1.69M working-capital figure is not overstated. Subtracted exactly once, e |
| Bear hibernation trigger (MEDIUM FIX) | Freeze M12/M14/M18 hires, cut Production to maintenance, draw $290k contingency | Without it, bear dies ~M22-23 in the early token era. With it, cash-out extends to ~M27+. Reported as a distinct bear number with the rule on and off. |
| Subscription honesty ($4.99 cut) | Net ~70% of the $9 plan at base, ~86% bull, ~71% bear; inside the 60-80% band | ARPU down 45% (4.99/9.00 = 0.554), count up ~1.4x (base ~1,870 vs prior ~1,333 at M12), net down ~30%. Not modeled as revenue-neutral. Treat $4.99 as land-and-e |
| Roadmap and stream timing | TGE ~M15; token-era streams switch on M15-M18 | Phases: concept 0-3, pre-production/IP 3-6, production 6-12, marketing/community 12-15, TGE 15+. M1-M14 is subscription + content only (no Meteora, no NFT prima |
| Unchanged token anchors | 100B supply, $18M opening FDV, $0.00018 launch, buyback 60% Meteora + 20% subscription, 50% burned | Meteora 40% net-to-ops, subscription 50% net-to-ops (30% NFT reserve, 20% buyback). NFT primary one-time ~TGE+3. Emission-only staking, no yield. Carried forwar |
07 Download
The full model, live formulas.
Ten tabs: Cover, Assumptions (scenario switch), Token Allocation, Vesting & Circulating, Sources & Uses, Revenue, Operating Expenses, Cash Flow & Runway, Buyback & Burn, Scenario Dashboard. Flip the scenario switch and the whole cash-flow recalculates.
Download JOKR-Financial-Model.xlsx →J
Financial model · 36-month horizon · adversarially stress-tested
Not investment advice · Forward-looking figures are estimates, not guarantees